After 100 days of deep freeze, the world was getting
reshaped (un)predictably with mankind coming out battered and bruised, but
unfortunately madder and apparently not seeming to have learnt any substantial
lessons. On the night of 15-16 June, 20 Indian soldiers got martyred in a
bloody gunless eyeball-to-eyeball medieval era hand-combat and confrontation
along LAC in Galwan Valley in Eastern Ladhak. It was a fierce physical
confrontation, in fact the first one since 1975 when there are casualties in
the dispute. So its criticality can’t be missed.
India honors its dead; the PLA keeps their casualty
secret. They say that they are not releasing the number of dead on their side
lest people of both countries compare the number of fatalities leading to
flaring of emotions, thus adding fuel to the fire. Hypothetically the goal appears
pretty decent, but can a dictatorial communist regime be expected to be so pure
in intention? They say it is a sign of their being ‘responsible’. When does a
power-centric dictatorial group, eager to manipulate the lives of millions as
per few rigid lines in the red book, behaves ‘responsibly’? So the PLA soldiers
who died for the party’s cause will be buried unknown. One can very well
imagine the level of secrecy in a dictatorial government by the fact that the
Chinese casualties suffered in the 1962 war were inconspicuously shared in
internal military history documents in 1990s only. Perhaps they drill it in the
minds of their armed cadres that dying unknown serves the cause of the
revolution.
However, even such ‘responsible’ behavior cannot
stop people from using their brains to put up conjectures. An American media
report says China lost 35 soldiers. We can have our own justifications for systematic,
organized dying. Fighting for a democratic nation helps man. The Indian
soldiers get tear-eyed farewells with full state honor. There are elaborate
funeral processions and ceremonies organized by the grateful nation. The wards
of the martyred soldiers are openly rewarded in terms of monetary help and
jobs. The highest of the high bow their head in salutation and gratitude.
The fallen PLA soldiers on the contrary get
anonymous graves and their wards threatened from opening out to the public on
the issue. They die unknown, Indian soldiers die with the entire country
singing farewell songs. Well, in my opinion, a soldier in the former case will
have more reason to give his all for his beloved country. In the latter, it’s
merely an intimidating duty forced down by an authoritarian state.
In India, the news of the Galwan Valley skirmish and
the death of soldiers prevailed over all Corona doomsday talk. People just
forgot Corona in one swift lot and condemned Chinese aggression. The news media
and social media were boiling with the entire country’s common man’s fusillade
against the Chinese. Boycot China movement built up. Xi Jinping’s effigies were
burnt. People filmed their brave efforts of smashing Chinese products including
TV sets. Indians these days are pretty vocal for the cause of the nation,
especially if it involves safe, harmless battles on the social media.
Unlike Kargil, the Indian journalists were spared
from their frontline duties to cover the daily routine of the war. This time there
was no coverage of what actually was happening on the border. It was kept away
from the public scrutiny. A direct reporting of the Chinese intrusion into the
Indian territory would have been too disturbing to the patriotic audience on
the social media. Social media is always a ticking time bomb. It can slay any
reputation in seconds. So the image of the keepers of modern India’s
nationalism would have been dented. So taking a clue from the communist
neighbor, there has been more secrecy in India also this time as journalists were
not allowed to take their war front beyond Ladhak. But all in all, a healthy
narrative has been build up which is clearly against China and rightly so.
The sun was setting over the barren tensed up
Himalayan heights in the Galwan Valley. The terrain is so inhospitable that
there is hardly any life link between the barren stones and the perennial
snows. Between 6 and 7 PM, Commanding Officer Santosh Babu led 20 of his
soldiers to see the de-escalation process, as agreed in June 6 talks, at a
disputed Chinese shelter near Patrol Point 14. The agreements of 1996 and 2005 for
the border management between the two countries mandate no use of firearms,
blasting operations or hunting with guns or any use of explosives within 2 Km
of the LAC. The soldiers were thus unarmed in spirit. The forward troops from
both sides patrolling the contentious LAC usually don’t carry guns, and if they
do carry weapons, these are slung on their backs and magazines are tucked safely
out of reach in pouches instead of being clipped on and thus at the mercy of
itching, nervous fingers prone to press the trigger.
All along the rugged Himalayan terrain running for
almost 4000 Km between the two Asian giants, there is no clearly demarcated
border. The two countries’ claim lines twist and twirl along roughest of
mountainous geography. These contested points of friction, so dreary and
inhospitable that none of the parties can think of staying there permanently
during the winters, are then patrolled by the frontier troops routinely during
short Himalayan summer, leaving peace to be enforced by the harsh winters.
Status quo is stamped by the snows in winters. And a shift-able status quo is
always to the advantage of a predatory dictatorial government in comparison to
a democratic one. The former has to push on by instinct because you are not a
dictator if you don’t push on principle. All that the democracy can manage is
to stand against the push. That’s what China has been doing against all its
neighbors.
After the snow-ordained lull in the winters, skirmishes
blossom up during the short summers when flowers in the alpine meadows smile
and brooks gurgle with pristine snow melts. We humans, however, are looking to
seek the last paradisiacal spots on earth to carry the smell of humanity to
complete our copyright over mother earth. Before the skirmish, the forward
troops keep their hands in pockets as heated verbal power gathers steam. It
then creeps to pushing and jostling, and finally fist-fights and stone throwing.
Better sense has prevailed over both sides to agree to the no fire use mandate
across border because they know there are almost innumerable friction points
and the status quo always challenged by the more aggressive party. Again,
almost on principle, a communist regime is bound to be more aggressive. In the
current scuffle the Chinese took one more step in aggression as they used boulders,
stones, barbed wires ties around rocks, and sticks studded with nails. That
takes them nearer to the use of bullets itself.
A nervous dusk was piling up its layers over the
ridges defining the highest battlefield in the world. By this time the Chinese
soldiers were supposed to have withdrawn from the disputed tent structure. The
biggest mistake one can commit is to expect the Chinese communists to keep
their words. We have seen Nehruvian blunder in taking their word prior to the attack
of 1962. So nothing to feel surprised about it when the Indian verification
patrol found the tent and the observation post still there. The PLA soldiers
found the lure of the observation post too much to leave it just like that. There
definitely was a plan which was beyond the scope of the recent agreement meant
for de-escalation. The structure was built within the limits up to which Indian
patrol parties did their rounds without any dispute presently. But then as a
communist one has to crawl on and on. The ideology thrives as long as the instinct
to crawl on thrives. And crawling on always pushes the status quo to a new
boundary from where another milestone manifests, thus egging them to crawl
still further. Can we have a bigger capitalist idea than this ever-persistent
urge to crawl on and on?
Crawling around this particular place in the Galwan
Valley allowed them to keep an eye over the Indian troop movement towards the north
near the Karakoram Pass. Even more significantly, it would give them an
opportunity to lay siege on the army movement on the newly laid DBO road
leading to the highest airbase in the world. DBO airstrip where India lands the
biggest cargo plane in the world is an eyesore to the Chinese because it’s
situated just 10 Km from the multi-billion dollar economic corridor. This
cartographic intrusion and aggression is part of their plans to safe-keep and
consolidate the logistic route of this CPEC. And there are many more. These but
are hidden because the scheming power of a communist regime far more than we
can grasp with our democratic conjectures.
The Chinese communists basically perform creeping
encroachments thus avoiding a full scale escalation. At least in this region
they are trying to gain all the strategic heights necessary to allay their
fears about the CPEC. Now CPEC itself is born of their insecurity and sense of
danger in the Malacca Straits though which most of their shipping takes places
and which can be choked by America because they have naval superiority. Is
there any limit to the scale of insecurity? One measure taken to allay one
particular insecurity will arrive with another new insecurity needing another
measure. They are deploying armed drones to secure the projected 100 billion
bilateral trade over the CPEC passing through the remotest corners of the
long-disputed region. To gain such strategic advantage they had hardly any
issue in laying aside Modi’s peace overtures time and again which turn the
great nationalist leader even liable to be a victim of the appeasement policy
of the Chinese.
Patrolling Point 14 is also an eyesore to them as it
lies on a ridge overlooking the Galwan River Valley. The said river joins the
Shyok River a few Kms down west along which the DBO roads moves up north to
reach the highest airstrip in the world. As we have said the Daulat Beg Oldie
airstrip is just 10 km away from the CPEC corridor running into Pakistan
occupied Kashmir. If India allows this observation post, the army supplies to
the DBO airbase would directly be at the mercy of the Chinese.
As the Indian verification patrol found the
structure still there in violation of the terms of the agreement, they removed
both the tent and the observation post. A brawl and fist fight broke out.
Reinforcements from both sides were called in. About 600 troops from both sides
were engaged in the bloody brawl and hand-to-hand combat. In the first wave of
clashes the brave CO and his 20 troops overpowered the Chinese post keepers. But
something was felt missing. The CO realized that these were not those regular
patrol troops whom they get acquainted with during their routine sorties.
Face-offs between troops, who are used to see each other in the same area, have
less likelihood of escalating into bloody brawls. These soldiers had been
redeployed from another area. The CO realized this and decided to go and check
the PP 14 further up in the valley. He called reinforcements and with his 80
troops went to check out PP14. Here 250 Chinese soldiers had taken vantage
positions and had planned an attack with their contrived hand-held weapons. In
this round of skirmishes, the CO and two of his soldiers fell to the Chinese
attack.
The CO is revered as a father figure and draws
immense loyalty from his subordinates. As the Indian troops found their CO Sahib
has fallen, whom they take as a godfather, they fought with unheard of spirit
in a spirit of revenge. Further reinforcements were called. Given better roads
on their side, the Chinese could muster up 400 troops against 200 Indians. Chinese
could move more swiftly because they have developed head roads to the heights.
Indians have to track along treacherous valley slopes to reach here. No wonder,
the Indians were outnumbered 2 to 1 as the scuffle spread to nearby narrow
ridges overlooking the river. In addition, the Chinese had subtle additions to
their hands this time. They had knuckledusters, lethal batons, spikes and
nail-studded baseball bats. The mountain ledge gave up on both sides and caved
in resulting in a landslide. Troops from both sides fell into the river. A
section of Indian troops were stranded on the other side. In subzero
temperatures, drenched in water, at an altitude of above 16000 feet, they stood
their guard to stop the Chinese from taking over Patrol Point 14. Many froze to
death. In the bloody seven hour standoff, three staggered bloodied melee type
clashes took place.
It is safe to believe that China lost double the
number of soldiers despite their numerical superiority. The next day bodies
were exchanged. It’s but commendable that both sides refrained from using guns
even though they had weapons with them and even in the face of life and death
struggle abided by this law. But the Chinese are a bit far from the rules of
engagement even here as they used those brutal contrived barbed and nailed
batons and rods. India it appears has finally decided to stand up to repeated
salami slicing technique of the Chinese through repeated intrusions.
As details of the bloody scuffle keep percolating
from the barren lands of Ladhak, it emerges that our soldiers, although
outnumbered in quantity, fought really well. Every Indian platoon has a Ghatak
Dasta of young soldiers well trained in martial arts and hand-to-hand fighting.
According to reports, they broke the neck of at least 18 Chinese soldiers. China
now decides to get their soldiers trained in martial arts. The Indian soldiers
will also get riot gear like batons and body protective suits to be better
equipped in future brawls. As of now, it’s a show of strength with both sides
marshalling thousands of troops along the LAC including tanks, helicopters,
fighter jets, missile systems and artillery guns.
In modern warfare, you actually don’t fight. You
just try to appear too strong and militarily equipped to puncture any design
against you. Posturing and propaganda helps a lot in this. Here again, in both
these departments a communist regime uses these elements with better effect
given their inherent aggressive nature. Simply through posturing the communist
regime in China have grabbed many territories from many countries without
firing a single bullet.
An army operating in a democratic set up is more
responsible under a political leadership. However, the face-offs in treacherous
slopes are pretty tricky. You just cannot go there with a predetermined set of
civilian instructions. It has been a big handicap with the Indian army so far
in managing the volatile situation popping up with new claims and renewed
efforts at changing the previous status quo. The army has been given “complete
freedom of action” to handle the situation along the LAC to manage the emergency
at their own level. It may be easily interpreted as a clear signal to the
commanders that they may not feel bound by the clause of no use of
firearms.
What makes the scuffle standout from the routine
browbeats is that Chinese appeared to have premeditated a bloody attack as they
used iron rods and nail-studded clubs. Apart from smashed heads and broken
necks many soldiers from both sides fell into the icy river in the dark. A few
of the Indian soldiers, who were stranded on the opposite bank of the river
after the landslide, were captured by the Chinese but were released after three
days of captivity.
As the hostilities erupted around the LAC, the Indian
military continued with its bridge construction a couple of Kms down the
valley. The Bailey bridge was completed in just three days, allowing India
better access to the site of the bloody confrontation. The prefabricated bridge
built about 3 Km into the Galwan valley above the Shyok-Galwan confluence
allows India to move its troop over the treacherous mountain valley to stop the
Chinese from filing into the valley and move towards the 255 Km road from
Darbuk to Daulat Beg Oldie, which is India’s last military post far in the
north just to the south of Karakoram pass.
The PLA’s Western Theatre Command has been pretty
proactive in its push into India leading to many verbal spats, stone throwing
and culminating in the 7 hour long violent standoff. All this is just and just
meant to unilaterally alter the status quo on the LAC. They have mastered the
craft of assertively crawling ahead along the disputed lines and then pull back
only to come back again and all along this time declaring full faith in
peaceful negotiations. Not to mention, all along this time, they develop
infrastructure which gets shadowed by the talks. In this long and protracted
scuffle, they ensure that their cartographic creep turns a de facto reality. Do
you still need more proofs how a land mafia state operates?
These are the first Indian casualties against China
since 1975. People of course are up in arms against China. Boycott China chorus
builds up. Instead of killing Chinese soldiers we can take economic measures to
deny them access to the vast Indian market. Many a Chinese product face
anti-dumping action alongside Indian Air force and Navy mulling over
contingency measures in skies and the seas to tame the fire-breathing dragon. We
need to pause and demarcate a line between the PLA and the political wing of
the CCP. There is a broad anti-India understanding across all wings of the CCP.
However, even within the same pool of animosity against India, the PLA appears
to be more rigid on India than the political leadership.
China had been pretty assertive in its troop build-up
in Ladhak region for the last two months and then they laid claim to entire
Galwan Valley. By force first they managed a coup and established military
presence in some disputed region, followed by staking claim to the same. They
have a roomful of issues to torment India with, including expectation that
India must not in any way come in the way of choosing the next Dalai Lama and
India’s role in calling for international investigation into the ‘zoonotic
source’ of the virus along with the route that led to human infection. They are
also wary of India consolidating its position as a responsible democracy in
shaping the post-Covid world order. India of course can spare responding
strategically instead of being carried over by blind sentimentalism. India has
the option of taking a stronger position on Tibet, Taiwan and Hong Kong. The
partnership with the US is now a necessity not choice anymore. Dilly dallying
with unsure mind about QUAD will not help anymore. Operational principles of
QUAD need to be turned into a permanent arrangement.
China undoubtedly sees India as a political,
economic and military competitor. China has refused to demarcate the LAC after
many years of border talks. The issue is kept open to be exploited repeatedly
as per the change in situations. Dichotomy is that China is India’s largest
trading partner but the biggest challenger to its rise at the world level. It
makes it really tricky. India is of course putting many things under a scanner
now. Trade deficit appears more unbearable in company with trust deficit. India
has swiftly changed foreign investment rules requiring governmental clearance
of any investment by any country sharing land border with India. It was done in
scared desperation as India got on its knees while fighting the pandemic and
China eyed taking over many an Indian company. Thwarted on this front, the
Dragon started knocking at the Himalayan borders.
China usually flummoxes us with its moody swings and
we always play it safe and guarded always mulling over the exact reasons for
the Dragon’s latest change of mood. So, as it systematically nibbles down
little slices of land along the disputed LAC, we are free to use our brains
about the reasons for the same in the latest flare up: whether it’s to bully
India into a neutral zone regarding international investigation into the origin
of the virus, strike back against FDI restrictions, India’s effort to duly
curtail the expanding Chinese footprint in its economy, to force India tow its
line on the 5G issue, to thwart Modi’s infrastructural boost in mountainous
border where it feels threatened of its own, just like a thief gets scared of a
new police post in the neighborhood. Is it DSDBO road running along the LAC
that has put chili to spoil its mood? We have a long list of speculations
because the status quo has opened up a Pandora box of issues that the Red
Bastion exploits almost at its free will. Irrespective of all the possible
reasons, one thing stands beyond doubt that China is forcing ahead to
unilaterally carve out more and more buffer zones, taking over still remaining strategic
heights that remain after its heartfelt grab of strategically important heights
along the now LAC in 1962.
The battles of 1962 also happened in these very
areas where currently the armies are sitting down face to face. In freezing
temperatures over the most inhospitable terrain, both armies had to withdraw to
their bases as a harsh winter intervened among the hostilities. The Chinese
were a bit better placed to keep occupying some strategic heights to serve
their purpose. In case of India it was literally like flying to a different
planet to defend its claims. There was no political boundary settlement and
rounds after rounds of talks continued.
The region concerned bears colonial legacy as the
Britishers left the area un-demarcated specifically. One line showed Aksai Chin
as part of Jammu and Kashmir. There is another line called Macartney-MacDonald
line to its west followed by still another to the west called Foreign Office
Line. After 1947, these were left to self-specific interpretation of China,
India, Tibet and rulers of Jammu and Kashmir. There are intertwining
perceptions which are nice chess pieces for machinations, especially for the
communists because they love this kind of bickering. The LAC is left unsurveyed
and unmarked on the ground. Patrols and pitching tents can flare up tempers.
But this particular tent is unacceptable to India as it allows the enemy to
come down the Galwan Valley and choke the vital DBO road leading to the highest
airstrip in the world from where they are keeping a watch over the CPEC.
As India thought of softer versions of punitive
strikes against China, they were already waging war at numerous unconventional
fronts including Cyber attacks. There were sustained DDOS (distributed denial
of service) attacks on important Indian websites. DDOS strikes are malicious
efforts to overwhelm a particular network by blooding it with “artificially
created Internet traffic”. Banking and other essential services are major
targets. Chengdu is PLA’s covert cyberfare headquarter from where many professional
hacker groups also operate. Indian governments responded by banning 59 Chinese
mobile applications including TikTok, SHAREit etc., on safety and privacy
grounds as these allowed the Chinese to extract a large amount of users’
personal data.
Australia spoke against the Chinese hegemony quite
openly so the dragon took potshots at the continental nation that is situated
too far for it to create direct tension for it. Australian PM spoke about a
‘sophisticated state-based cyber actor’ launching comprehensive cyber attacks.
So that is China for us, it launches viruses, cyber attacks and has 2000
missiles on its eastern coast to annihilate any military that tries to reach
the mainland.
Richard Nixon, who broke the ice with the communist
regime allowing it to enter the mainstream of globalization and thus laying the
path for it mammoth rise in the following decades, mulled over his choice
during his late life reflections that he might have in fact facilitated the
path of creating a Frankstein Monster.
We can avoid blaming 'China' for all the recent time
suffering world over. Of course, there is Chinese Communist Party (CCP) that is
majorly behind what has seen us tumbling down most seriously since the WW
second. However, CCP doesn't mean 'China'. China minus CCP leaves us 95% of Chinese
who are people like anyone of us in the rest of the world from New York to
Timbaktu going through the rest of various nations imbued in various socio
cultural milieu. These 95% of the Chinese have suffered the most at the hands
of the CCP. They have multigenerational family history of systematic torture.
They need individual freedom and democracy. So hate CCP not China. Condemn the
brutality of the CCP red-capped thugs not China because China is far bigger
than CCP.
We cannot rule out a kind of military lapse before
the situation leading to the current flare-up. Engagement with China had turned
into appeasement under the present government. PM Modi has been to Beijing 9
times and met Xi Jinping 18 times since he came to power. He has been the
leading Indian PM who has invested wholeheartedly in building ties with China.
So if 1962 is betrayal of Nehru, Ladhak 2020 stands out as the betrayal of
Modi. Nehru built up his poetic illusions of his Chinese outreach on the basis
of his ancient history and civilization scholarship, Modi the strict taskmaster
has been too vocal about the practicalities of business, bilateralism and
peaceful coexistence. Or may be, as a powerful nationalist leader, Modi could
feel some affinity with the strongman from China whose aggressive red ideology
is itching to challenge the US all over the world.
In the rarest of the rare slip of tongue, PM Modi
erred in his assurance-giving spirit as he declared there has been no intrusion
in our territory. A blunder I would say. In one phrase it legalizes the Chinese
claims on our territory. Moreover, if there was no intrusion why has all this
war kind hoopla going on for so long? Even if the Chinese have build up posts
in the Indian patrolling areas, serving as a buffer among the two neighbors,
that itself is an intrusion by default because in this case the new buffer will
be pushed further West. So clearly it’s an intrusion. India has been very
condescending to their persistent push into more and more of Indian territory. So
I cannot imagine this type of Indian reaction if the situation is clearly
limited to the patrolling areas only. There must be some intrusion clearly into
the Indian territory. There is also a possibility that after the Indian upgrade
in border infrastructure, our forces are better placed to go for more effective
patrolling and this has irked China because it puts a sturdier resistance to
their continuous nibbling at the edges like ant bites, piling up claims over a
period of time, maintaining status quo in the guise of endless rounds of talks
and meanwhile following the only objective of moving further into the Indian
territory.
As Monsoon mustiness builds up and Corona becomes a
part of life—a kind of any other disease that kills some people—the only
question that is being mulled over in military commander level talks is whether
China agrees to the pre standoff position. China claims the entire Galwan
Valley. India is quick to junk all these claims. China may take more time than
we expect even if it decides to pull back at all. Ladhak is a sort of China’s
Achilles heel, not because India can overpower it from here, but because it’s
India’s geostrategic pivot point to reach out to Russia, Europe and Central
Asia. Usually Achilles heel is about a weakness that can be exploited by the
enemy. In case of China, Achilles heel qualifies to be anything that the rival
state can use for its own pursuance of interests even without directly
affecting or threatening China. Well, so much so for being an antagonistic
state.
Both sides are engaged in diplomatic and military
commander level talks. The show of strength goes on over both sides of the
border. The weapons are flaunted to show what they might do instead of actually
doing anything with them to let loose a chain of conjectures on the other side.
No wonder, both sides have created a pretty effective theatrical show of
military strength to make their audience happy and assuring each other a lot of
mutual destruction if things escalate further. Fear of destruction is bigger driver
for peace than any other consideration.
Deception is as much effective as a nuclear strike
and the Chinese are the masters of the art. In the 1950, the Chinese official
maps started showing Indian territories under its jurisdiction. To allay the
apprehensions of the insecure Indians, they just casually told them that it has
nothing to do with the ground reality. It was merely a hypothetical legacy of
the past. But then it sowed the seeds of 1962. They will simply make a claim,
intrude to leave a controversial footprint in the area, on a small scale,
without creating a big flare up, withdraw for some time, and record the conflict
as a kind of proof about their claim in future negotiations. Two steps forward,
one step back, teasing the enemy, analyzing the opponent’s response, waiting, intruding
again like hyenas, and still again and again, till you either give in or decide
to fight. A lot is achieved by appearing to be ready for fight instead of
actually fighting. Typical propaganda and posturing.
This time, India has been categorical about its
stand of maintaining pre April status quo. It means Chinese army withdrawing
troops, remove pillboxes, bunkers and observation posts from Galwan Valley,
forward positions occupied by them in Fingers area and a few other friction
points where they have sneaked in. The Finger Area is a cluster of strategic
ridges along the northern bank of Pangong Tso lake. They have encroached and
made permanent shelters in the erstwhile no-man’s land, stretching for 8 Km,
between Finger 4 and Finger 8 where earlier the armies of both countries just
patrolled to maintain it as a kind of buffer zone. It cuts down the area of
Indian patrol parties near the areas that are full time under Indian
occupation. The Indian claim Line is up to Finger 8; that of the Chinese is up
to Finger 4. Claim and counter claim decide the patrolling points serving as a
sort of rugged treacherous zones where there is always a possibility of things
going crazy. There are a few such strategic locations along the LAC where they
have pushed the ante to change the shape of the LAC. A proactive India under a
strong nationalistic government wants to ensure that the days of nibbling over
the LAC are over. The PLA has better reach from the plateau side. Their
infantry has paved metaled roads to move. On the other hand, the Indian
mountain troops get guerrilla warfare at high altitudes. Right now, air defence
systems are active on both sides as fighter jets, helicopters and drones tear
apart the blue apron of skies with their threat and war mongering curves. Missiles
are deployed. India has built up troop deployment in forward positions pretty
substantially. Meanwhile, India is furtively busy in building approach roads
emanating from the DSDBO road to far off patrol posts in tougher reaches. This
has irked China because regular Indian patrols lessen the chances of Salami
slicing which is their favorite recipe in the ever-alive kitchen of
cartographic intrusions.
The US was surely expected to take India’s part and
that too unequivocally which they have done not to disappoint a billion plus
Indians who expect a lot now post Howdy Modi and Howdy Trump. The US secretary
of state has termed CCP as a rogue actor that has threatened “the world’s most
popular-populous democracy.” The US has pulled out 25000 troops from their
German base to deploy them in the volatile east surrounding China. As far as
Russia is concerned our massive arms purchases from Putin can at the most buy
their neutrality in the current scenario. More the insecurities and tensions
between China and India, the better for Russia because that means a boost to
their weapons industry.
The US naval deployment changes the contours of the
game from blue depths of off shore waters. The super carriers of the US
Indo-Pacific Command manage far more than it appears on the surface with its
forward marching submarines. There is every reason for China to be worried
about what these naval assets can do. It’s not necessary that they will
actually do something. Modern warfare is more about posturing with proven
military assets, not necessarily using them. Almost all countries have such
nasty weapons that it is agreed to just keep skirmishes within containment
zones, otherwise mutual destruction is assured. The USS Theodore Roosevelt can
choke the Chinese in Malacca Straits and the Bay of Bengal. The behemoth is
three times larger than any other carrier and moves like an independent entity
accompanied by its cruisers, submarines and destroyer squadrons. This and
nuclear submarines can flex military muscles literally anywhere on the planet.
After all, you don’t simply inherit the superpower status. One has to fight for
it and fight even more to maintain it. The US drones have access to every
square inch on earth, the drone spots the target, relays the message to a plane
of the caliber of F-35, which in turn either shoots it or further passes on the
message to some island based long-range missiles of the Marine Corps. China
feels safe because it has deployed around 2000 long-range missiles along its
cost. But to emerge as a superpower it has to rest assured on its attacking
prowess also instead of just feeling secure at home. Even a lion sitting holed
up inside the safety of its cave is no better than a cat that roams freely.
Here the US is not only a lion, it moves freely also. The Chinese are cats and
that too holed up in their cave.
In our rat race to forge deadlier weapons, we have
ensured that an all out war is the last option, however serious the issue is.
So currently tedious rounds of military and diplomatic level talks are going to
set up a process of disengagement. Notwithstanding claims and counterclaims,
the exact position in the Finger area and Dapsang plains warrant concrete steps
from the Chinese side because adhocism here can’t be digested by India. The
Finger Area is a set of 8 cliffs jutting outward from the Sirijap range
overlooking the lake. The PLA has erected pillboxes, tented camps, solid
bunkers and many observation posts between Finger 4 and 8 which was earlier the
buffer zone with Indian soldiers patrolling up to Finger 8 and the Chinese up
to Finger 4. So the status quo was 8 Km of buffer zone. As per the de-escalation
process, the Chinese will surely push the buffer zone into the Indian side.
While we have been thinking, even at the cost of sounding appeasing the
Chinese, along the lines of avoiding a full blown confrontation with China,
their salami slicing techniques have fetched them gains over decades which a
full blown war won’t have. They have made territorial gains, and in the guise
of these small time clandestine missions they have achieved little by little
and gaining what would have been impossible in one go. Shifting claim lines and
crawling assertiveness, shameless exhibition of expansionism, maximalist
territorial dreams are basically presented through innocuous salami slicing
through military jingoism. Al this while they would talk of peaceful resolution
of disputes. It has kept Sino-India relations at a level where they could eat
the major chunk of consumerism offered by the massive Indian market also.
The Dapsang Plains lie south of the strategic DBO
road near Karakoram Pass. It’s the local soft spot for the highest airstrip in
the world at 16614 feet (taking India’s airplanes as near as mere 8 Km from the
LAC) and the newly constructed road linking it to Leh down south. The Chinese
consider the DBO forward base a threat to their own ambitious CPEC in which
they have invested billions of dollars. So the PLA has mobilized a lot of
troops in the forward areas to disrupt Indian armmy’s patrolling patterns in
the region. When multi-pronged self-interests clash they create many points of
friction, leading to fears, phobias and insecurities which in turn pump the
arms race. The weapons pile up, without any real chance of doing the
destruction. The swanky rhetoric and posturing covers almost 90% of the modern
day war. And to excel in posturing and propaganda one needs more and more
deadly weapons.
So there is pretty solid posturing on both sides at
the moment. It is entertaining the respective audience through news channels.
India has to make its posturing tangible and douse the flared passion of its
domestic audience to make them feel victorious even though we have been at
receiving end in the current controversy. India has moved three divisions to
the forward posts, many squadrons of frontline tanks, mechanized infantry
squads and making plenty of jingoistic noise through Sukhoi-30s, upgraded
Mig-29 fighter jets, Apache attack helicopters, power-lifter Chinooks,
super-lifter C-17 Globemaster, C-130J Super Hercules special operations
aircraft, Ilyushin-76 heavy-lift planes, An-32 transport planes, Mi-17 utility
helicopters, P-8I surveillance aircraft, M-777 ultra-light howitzers (sling-loaded
to helicopters and set up on hitherto unreachable ridges and fire up to 30 Km),
T-72/T-90 tanks and BMP-2/2K infantry combat vehicles. The air-defense system
including supersonic Akash missiles has been activated in the region. High-end
precision guided munitions have been ordered from the USA. Further, India is
pushing Russia to deliver S-400 Triumf air defense missile system (which they
have already sold to the Chinese). Validating their proactive approach to
counter the ever-persistent Chinese nibbling at Himalayan borders like
termites, India has ordered Rupees 40000 crore worth war materials including 33
new Mig-29s and Sukhoi-30s and Israeli surface to air missile system to deal
with the contingency. India is trying its level best to acquire Predator
B-drone from America that can do surveillance as well as target with
laser-guided bombs and missiles. (Americans are although wary that their
technology might be leaked to the Russians who have deep defense cooperation
with the Indians.) All this posturing has helped primarily Russia because both
China and India are running to pour more money in their pockets to buy the
latest weapons.
Chinese are doing the same across the LAC. And
amidst all this, the talks for disengagement are going on. One has to appear
strong enough to make the opponent feel that the costs of undue aggression will
be heavy to stop any misadventure. So weapons are better left unused and tried
just for posturing and psychological push-backs. Meanwhile, firing another
salvo from its expansionist cannon, China has claimed another chunk of land
from the Bhutanese territory. The peaceful little kingdom is caught unawares as
this new claim was never a point of contention.
Both the Chinese and the Indians are aware of the
costs of the persistence of the stalemate. Apart from the deadly weapons that
make it almost impossible for the two sides to go into even a limited war, they
are wary of the impending winters if the stalemate persists even after
September. The harsh winters leave hardly any scope for the two sides to
maintain their forward deployment.
Apart from positioning its armed might along the
border to send a message to the Chinese that no more nibbling at the border
will be tolerated anymore, India has started some kind of economic offensive
also. Chinese firms will be kept out of the highway projects, imports will be
systematically discouraged, Chinese investments in MSMEs not allowed, upgradation
of 4G telecom tenders to be kept out of the Dragon’s reach, etc. All this is
going on as both sides are aiming for “expeditious, phased and step-wise
de-escalation.”
Amidst all this, PM Modi visited a forward army post
in the region and declared that the era of expansionism is over, while China still
tries—and will continue, irrespective of come what may—its level best to change
the status quo by intruding into the Indian side and changing claim lines to
expand its territorial claims. PM is loved by majority of Indians and his word
is taken on its face value. But even at the optimistic best his strategic
messaging against the predatory tactics, which are basically aimed at eating
little slices slowly without firing a single bullet, appears helpless in the
face of the single-minded Chinese focus for more and more land.
People now say in jest that now we know why PM Modi
has been so proactive in hugging Trump even though the latter appeared reserved
in this brotherly gesture. Trump has proved that he considers Modi a dear
friend as he says so many times. To tweak the Chinese ears, the US navy has
deployed two nuclear-powered aircraft carriers to hold intimidating exercises
in the South China Sea. Well, their vulnerability at sea. The US knows it. The
Malacca soft spot turns the dragon jittery. The pressure appears to be paying
back also as in the second week of July the Chinese have taken concrete steps
towards disengagement by moving back 1.5 Km from the Galwan friction point. It
serves as a sort of precursor to a kind of mild de-escalation. They are
hesitant in moving back and have extended claim lines that lie inside the
Indian territory as per the status prior to May 5. India is insisting that the
status quo of May 5 should be maintained. The Chinese want to shift the buffer
zone to the west along natural features and thus acquire the still remaining
strategic ridges that they think make India in advantageous position.
Hours and hours of talks are intended to carry out a
phased de-escalation by creating a 4 Km buffer zone at major friction points.
For a few weeks there won’t be any patrolling by any troops from any side in
the buzzer zone to avoid another face off. But again, China may already have
succeeded in achieving its goals of pushing the buffer zone further west and
thus maintain the new status quo. So it’s unlikely that Indian troops will be
able to patrol in the areas where they had reach before April. And China will
fight diplomatically tooth and nail to maintain this new status quo.
Geographical features define patrolling points where rival troops patrol up to
their lines of perception. It’s very easy for any side to blame the other’s
patrol party as intrusion along the contested border. Meanwhile, to help the
Chinese keep their mind focused on disengagement with a bit lesser gains than
they thought while starting all this, the Indian Air Force is putting up a
brave show of posturing by presenting its combat worthiness through
all-weather, day-night combat flights in Ladhak. An assortment of frontline
attack helicopters, fighter jets, multi-mission choppers are carrying out
sorties to show their battle worthiness.
Now all the issues are melting into the boring and
snaily talks of pulling back troops from the face-off friction points, a well
verified retreat of both sides followed by withdrawing weapons and machinery to
a consensual distance from the LAC, leading to the status quo. Chinese will be
fools to have put us all this show (and further dent its international
reputation) for nothing if the status quo was restored. They will have
something as per their diehard principles of territorial revisionism. They
remember the disastrous defeat suffered during Vietnam invasion in 1979 and
hardly believe in an all out war to achieve their geographical ambitions. The
goals that are conventionally taken to be achieved through outright fighting
are achieved through trickery, disguise and clandestine surprise intrusions and
justifying them through blank lies. For instance, they have literally changed
the entire narrative in the South China Sea without using a single bullet. They
have already got away with many illegalities even in the current situation.
They ambushed an Indian patrol that had gone visiting the area to verify
whether they had retreated as per a recent disengagement agreement. PM Modi may
have used the Ladhak speech to create a hollow sense of jingoism and euphoria
among the domestic audience to justify the disengagement process and portray it
as something done from a position of strength. China will somehow salvage the
revised status quo. At many friction points, the new buffer zones lie to the
Indian side of border. Through long and protracted talks they will just play
the irritating game of attrition, haggle, weigh down to finally keep sitting
where they are according to the Chinese dictum “possession is nine-tenths of
the law.” We should know, despite what went off in the Indian media, they have
achieved what they wanted in Doklam plateau.
